Friday, October 5, 2018

Refinement on "BREAKTHROUGH!"

I should mention that my cousin who is much more educated about the science of DNA pointed out that we can't be 100% percent sure that Graphen Holt Greene is the brother/cousin/uncle of our Britta Ann Green, born 1834 in AL, until we compare DNA segments, and they match. 

In addition, "triangulation" really means comparing at least two segments from known descendants against suspected descendants to conclude that they match. Here's a description:



The definition of triangulation in this context means:
  • To find a common segment
  • Of reasonable size (generally 7cM or over)
  • That is confirmed to a common ancestor with at least two other individuals
  • Who are not close family
Close family generally means parents, siblings, sometimes grandparents, although parents and grandparents can certainly be used to verify that the match is valid. The best triangulation situation is when you match those two other people through a second child, meaning siblings of your ancestor.
https://dna-explained.com/category/triangulation/
Since Ancestry doesn't have a chromosome browser, it won't be possible to scientifically triangulate to a high degree of certainty until some of GHG's descendants can be persuaded to send their raw DNA data to Gedmatch. 

I'm on it. 


In the meantime, let me bolster my claim that GHG is Britta's relative by adding these facts:


• I currently manage or have access to seven DNA kits at Ancestry of people that we can prove are descended from Britta Ann Green, born 1834 in AL. They include one great-great grandchild and six great-great-great grandchildren. 


• I can identify the DNA kits of dozens of other people who are known/proven to descend from Britta Ann Green. 


• BAG was married twice, once to John L. McGuire and once to Mike Flynn. I have access to the kits of descendants from both of those marriages.


• BAG is my third great-grandmother. If the descendants of GHG were related to me, they'd probably be in the vicinity of fourth to sixth cousins. Same with most of the Ancestry kits I manage or have access to. 


It is possible that for people to match IBC (identical by chance) rather than IBD (identical by descent). Not every Ancestry member who lists GHG as an ancestor will match me or the kits I manage/access. And not every family tree at Ancestry has the correct ancestors in the correct line. 


However, in 12 examples of Ancestry members who list GHG as an ancestor, there are multiple matches between those kit owners and the kits I manage/access. In addition some of those kits simultaneously match the kits of Britta's descendants from both marriages. 


So I'm convinced. And when I have this many matches, I'm usually right. 

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